A monsoon without rains in week since official declaration

 

The southwest monsoon has been relatively dry in its first week, particularly over Kerala and the northeastern states of Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura.
Rainfall has been unevenly distributed in other areas where the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared the arrival of monsoon, indicating a sluggish start to the most critical rainfall season for India's economy, particularly the agricultural sector.
The IMD predicted that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala on May 29, three days earlier than usual on June 1. Other weather watchers and Skymet, a private weather agency based in Noida, have disputed this announcement.
The monsoon has officially begun for 11 days, but the rains have yet to arrive as predicted. On the microblogging site Twitter, some users wondered if the monsoon had even arrived in Kerala.
Kerala and Manipur experienced heavy rains in the days preceding the monsoon season.

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However, the dry trend of the pre-monsoon period continued into the monsoon season in Mizoram and Tripura. This can cause issues with water availability for people, particularly farmers looking to sow crops.
According to IMD, 13 of Kerala's 15 districts, all of Mizoram's districts, six of Manipur's nine districts, and seven of Tripura's eight districts have 'deficient' or 'largely deficient' rainfall.
The national weather service forecasted low rainfall for Kerala during the first week of monsoon season in the last week of May. However, it predicted normal rainfall for northeast India.
Rainfall was low in Kerala and the northeast in June of last year as well, as Cyclone Yaas pushed monsoon winds further north and west into other states, causing early floods in some, such as Bihar.
This year, no such event has occurred, raising concerns about the state's lack of rainfall at the start of the season.
The situation in other areas where the monsoon has arrived is not much better. In Tamil Nadu, roughly half of the districts have inadequate, severely inadequate, or no rainfall. This week, all three districts of coastal Karnataka, the state's rainiest region, experienced significant rainfall deficits.
IMD has forecast heavy rainfall for all these states beginning June 8, but whether the rainfall happens remains to be seen. On Twitter, Vineet Kumar of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, stated that "rains in the country are expected to pick up after 14 June."
People in northwest and central India are in a bad situation, with less-than-normal pre-monsoon rainfall, and will have to wait even longer for monsoon rains to start.
Northwest India experienced a 63% rainfall deficit from March 1 to May 31 this year, while central India experienced a 39% deficit and Telangana in south India experienced a 28% deficit.
This is because the monsoon trough's Arabian Sea branch stalled after May 31 and the Bay of Bengal branch stalled after June 3.

The Bay of Bengal branch had previously stalled between May 20 and 30, after which it moved and covered northeast India by June 3. The meteorological reasons for the monsoon's slow progress and lack of rainfall are unknown at this time.
On May 31, the IMD forecasted normal monsoon rains across India in June. The countrywide rainfall deficit in the first week of June is 37%, with huge deficits in northwest and central India.
"It's unclear whether the June deficit is a trend in terms of weaker monsoon circulation," said Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland in the United States.
"The same factor that favors late pre-monsoon cyclones may continue into weak June rainfall, but this must be studied carefully," he added.
He also stated that the study would be complicated by cyclonic rainfall mixing with monsoon rainfall, which occurred in both 2020 and partially in 2021.
According to experts, if the rains do not pick up in the coming weeks, the country could face a significant deficit in June rainfall.Down To Earth previously predicted that the monsoon would move slowly over India and that the first two months would be dry, an ominous prediction that may come true.

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